Ahead of this week’s meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Sochi, it’s worth trying to make sense of the important yet complex – and occasionally baffling – relationship between Russia and Turkey. The key to understanding this lies in their intertwined
Five months into Moscow’s “special military operation”, Russian and Ukrainian forces are locked in a grinding war of attrition. Russian forces are making progress, fighting to take full control of the Donbas, but only slowly and unevenly in the face of dogged Ukrainian
Ukraine’s heroic fight against the Russian invasion sparked a powerful response from the democratic world, not only in the trans-Atlantic neighborhood but also from Asia-Pacific nations – Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. Governments imposed sanctions, businesses halted their operations in
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan last month announced an upcoming military operation in Syria, which followed heightened rhetoric against Finland and Sweden’s efforts to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Similar to autumn 2021, Erdoğan claims the offensive will establish a 30-
In response to worldwide supply chain issues caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – who between them previously accounted for nearly one-third of global wheat supplies – the Thai government, headed by 2014 coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha, is seeking to profit from the 45 per cent increase
Smoke hangs low over Europe’s skies. Most rises from pulverised Ukrainian cities, ruined by Russian artillery. Some, however, emanates from the ceaseless swirl of rumours about Vladimir Putin’s health. If there is smoke, does fire necessarily follow? What is gained by speculating about the
A slew of countries have announced food export bans or higher food export taxes as a result of the war in Ukraine. The initial shortages in the global wheat supply following Russia’s invasion has now trickled into other food products. Headlines for recent export curbs have focused on
Three months after Russia’s invasion, what’s the outlook for the war in Ukraine?
On the ground, the prospect is for a protracted war of attrition. Russia’s initial multidirectional attack from the north, east and south of Ukraine failed abjectly, due to operational incompetence and
This week I was in Warsaw listening to experts on regional strategy and security. It was clear that Poland sees itself as Ukraine’s champion. Beyond the immediate emergency response following Russia’s invasion, Poland is acting as Ukraine’s advocate in building support both across NATO and EU
While Russia’s attempt to blackmail Poland and Bulgaria by cutting off natural gas supplies may seem a distant question for the nations of the Indo-Pacific, we believe it is relevant and urgent. Accordingly, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, the group known as “the
Russia’s current military fiasco in Ukraine could have a serious impact on Moscow’s position in Syria. A decision by Turkey to close its airspace to Russian planes flying to the Middle Eastern country is expected to affect Russian military capabilities in war-torn Ukraine, although such a
Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has had the opposite effect of his desire to divide Europe. Former neutrals – Finland, Sweden, Austria and Switzerland – are evaluating their traditional non-alignment policy. Ireland might change, too, shifting from its longstanding “
As Russia’s war of attrition grinds away in eastern Ukraine, Moscow seems to be opening a new front on Ukraine’s western border, in the Transnistria region of Moldova. A series of mysterious explosions in Transnistria signals that something is afoot. But Russia’s objectives remain a mystery
Stories of children finding the bullet-ridden bodies of their parents, repeated rapes, and airstrikes have revealed the horrors of Russia’s invasion to the world. In the two months since forces rolled into Ukraine in February, satellite images have shown bodies lining the streets of Bucha, while
Following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February, there has been ongoing controversy over the response by the Vietnamese government, which has refrained from naming Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war an “invasion”, abstained from the United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s
Russia’s ability to launch its so-called “special military operation” to undertake “denazification” in Ukraine has not so far faced international legal sanction. On 25 February, a draft UN Security Council Resolution was debated, but failed to win support after a Russian veto. Since then,
Two factors – military materiel and energy opportunities – have been used to explain India’s muted criticisms of Russia and its equivocal support for Ukraine. Both positions, to non-Indians’ chagrin, are in India’s national interests. As India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh recently
That grandee of American economic statecraft Robert Zoellick made an uncomfortable return to public life this month by being lampooned for sitting on the Twitter board for four years but never managing to tweet.
Nevertheless, the one-time Republican consiglieri has provided
Almost two months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, neither strong Western condemnation nor punishing economic sanctions have diminished domestic support for President Vladimir Putin.
Indeed, paradoxical as it may seem to Western outsiders, they may even be rallying support behind him.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a food shortage – or crisis for some – in unexpected places across the world. For wheat, maize, barley and sunflower oil, Russia and Ukraine are among the biggest global producers. Russia is also the world’s top exporter of fertiliser and
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine has laid bare the brutality of the campaign, there have been increasing debates over whether it constitutes genocide. On 12 April, US President Joe Biden accused Russia of committing genocide, later clarifying that he “called it genocide because it has become
The war in Ukraine is entering its ninth week. Looking back, in the first three weeks, Russia tried to quickly impose regime change. This failed, leading to the Russian army adopting a wasteland strategy. This aimed to destroy Ukraine economically, devastate cities and towns, and create large
The modern history of war is punctuated by images so shocking that they alter public discourse, turn opinions, or sometimes successfully, change the trajectory of a conflict.
Warsaw Ghetto Boy (1943), possibly taken by Nazi photographer Franz Konrad captured the impending reality of the fate of
Facing the media on the ground in Bucha on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reflected sombrely on the progress of talks between Ukraine and Russia. “It is very difficult to talk when you see what they have done here.”
The talks – tentatively begun last week in Istanbul –
Dystopias make for popular fare. One needs only look at popular video games to see a common theme: Fallout’s nuclear wasteland, Mass Effect’s alien invasion, or Horizon Zero Dawn’s machine apocalypse. The protagonist must resolve problems, recruit allies and build capability to prepare and
It was a surprise to see Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations Sergiy Kyslytsya attending a meeting of the Security Council on 29 March holding up a copy of a small book I published while living in Australia in 2015. What’s Wrong with Diplomacy? may well have had the right title on its
As a consequence of its actions, Russia faces potentially stifling isolation. Russia will want to show the limits of this isolation through regional frameworks that also enable the Russian military to act as the dominant power. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) offers Russia this
To everyone’s surprise, after a month’s hard fighting in Ukraine, the Russian army is now effectively fully committed. There are no more large regular, active forces available elsewhere in the country to replace its combat losses or to rotate the forces currently fighting as they grow tired.
Right from the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Mykhailo Fedorov has walked both sides of the new global divide over digital currency that the war has exposed.
On 26 February he launched his much higher profile campaign for donations of Bitcoin,
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine vividly demonstrates how great power politics can shatter confidence about universal adherence to international norms. When the international order is undermined, it is usually small states that seek assurances to promptly redress that order to ensure their own
A month since Russia invaded Ukraine, the conflict has ground to a bloody stalemate. Yet there seems little prospect, at this point, of the conflict stopping any time soon. But how might it eventually end?
Complete military victory by Russia is looking increasingly unlikely, at least in terms of
Is it possible for the United States to be both righteous defender of Ukraine’s right to self-determination and prudent decisionmaker? The combination of an experienced president and a well-informed US Congress bode well for ongoing crisis management. But judging likely outcomes requires a
Advocacy for women’s rights is on the rise in China, whether the censors like it or not. And feminism is gathering more support, highlighted in recent weeks across China’s social media through debate on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in an uncomfortable exposition of the country’s
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had posed difficult questions for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and exposed the costs of pursuing a more diversified series of diplomatic, economic and military relationships. The two Gulf states are in effect experiencing the “diversification dilemma
Russia’s war has stalled. There are small advances, but at high cost. Russian forces started the war with simultaneous attacks across Ukraine. They have not been able to do such advances for almost two weeks now.
The Ukrainian armed forces are taking advantage of this and inflicting
Moscow’s latest invasion of Ukraine has turned Vladimir Putin’s Russia into a pariah state, essentially overnight, and seen the country saddled with an unprecedented international sanction regime. The long-term implications of freezing cooperation and dialogue with Russia are significant –
Aside from Donald Trump’s bluster about “fire and fury” and Kim Jong-un’s similarly theatrical replies in the manufactured “crisis” of 2017, serious nuclear threats made during an international crisis have been happily MIA for the better part of the past 40 years. Not so now. Less than
Russia is committing atrocity crimes in Ukraine, but they do not constitute genocide. While that distinction matters little to people caught up in this brutal armed conflict, analysts and policymakers must be aware of the difference and tailor their response accordingly.
The use of cluster
The dominant narrative of social media during the ongoing war in Ukraine is often reduced to considerations of stopping the spread of dis/misinformation. Reducing social media’s capacity and power in this manner can not only ignore some of the other dangers of social media during crises, but also
The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend. Likewise, there may not be an instinctive alignment of my two adversaries.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s reference to “arc of autocracy” and the “instinctive” alignment between Russia and China in the address at the Lowy Institute was
Much is being written about Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, and much more will surely be said in the months and years ahead of this potentially epoch-defining event. But some of the most insightful and almost prescient analyses were made well before the conflict, such as in Larry Diamond’
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has overturned the post-1945 international system.
Attention has focused on the sea change in European attitudes to security threats, the defence spending that Russia’s aggression has produced, and the sobering challenge Russia’s invasion poses to accepted
It wasn’t so long ago that Azerbaijan was a focus of global attention, the country a rare feature of international headlines after a simmering dispute with neighbouring Armenia over control of Nagorno-Karabakh turned violent. This local standoff had long been feared for potential wider
The Biden administration played a critical role in assembling the European and global coalition to punish Russia’s unprovoked invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, and in so doing displayed American diplomatic power at its best: leading without dominating.
The White House overcame well-
India’s position on the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has elicited a surprising amount of scrutiny. As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, India along with the United Arab Emirates chose to abstain on resolutions against Russia. At the UN General Assembly, India was the most
Polling by Russian Field at the end of February indicated that a majority of Russians (59 per cent) supported Vladimir Putin’s “special military operations” in Ukraine. Yet, the longer the war goes on in Ukraine, and the more restrictive international economic sanctions become, factors from
No matter what happens in Ukraine, this war has been a key turning point for the European Union.
Russia, a divisive issue before the war
In order to understand the current situation, it is necessary to go back in time to the years leading to 2021, before Russian President Vladimir Putin started
If India is to stand up to China, it needs its defence partnership with Russia. The West recognises this strategic dilemma mainly because India is aligned in balancing China in the Indo-Pacific.
India’s continued abstentions at the United Nations on the Russia-Ukraine crisis have not gone
At the heart of a feminist approach to foreign policy is a commitment to non-violence. Not because the framework is unmoored from the realities of the world we live in, but because a feminist approach does not simply accept the world as it finds it, but rather seeks to unpack the drivers of the
Southeast Asia doesn’t much matter to the outcome of a war far away in Europe. Yet Southeast Asian countries responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offer an insight into the region’s ability to navigate sharpening major power rivalries.
So how does the region’s response stack up so far