Some alternative Afghanistan questions
by Sam Roggeveen
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30 August 2010 3:24PM
Jim Molan's list of Afghanistan questions begins with, 'Is the war winnable?' But this strategic question ought to be preceded by a grand-strategic one: Is the war worth winning?
Here are some other questions that flow from those five words:
- What are the most important issues facing Australia in the modern world, and does our Afghanistan commitment reflect these priorities? Should our military and diplomatic focus instead be on:
- coping with the rising powers of Asia and the relative decline of the US?
- preparing for Australia's own relative decline against fast-growing Southeast Asian economies?
- reinforcing and encouraging Indonesia's transition to democracy and modernity?
- building regional and international institutions that can guard Australia against strategic shocks, whether these be economic, strategic or environmental?
- At what point should Australia stop trying to build credits with the US through troop commitments, and instead serve the alliance by counseling US restraint?
- Should Australia try to convince the US — perhaps by withdrawing our forces — that the war is a strategic sideshow and that the US ought to focus its attention on rebuilding its economic strength so that it can remain a strong Pacific power?
- Will the terrorist threat diminish noticeably if we achieve our Afghanistan war aims, or will terrorists simply migrate to other lawless territories?
- If Australia's withdrawal did lead to an increased terrorist threat, could we live with that?
- In terms of counter-terrorism, what is the opportunity cost of the Afghanistan mission? Could the resources be better used to:
- buttress our very successful regional counter-terrorism approach, which focuses on intelligence and policing?
- do something about Australia's diplomatic deficit, given that diplomacy has been crucial to opening doors to regional counter-terrorism cooperation?
- improve the resilience of Australian infrastructure against terrorist strikes?