Some alternative Afghanistan questions

by Sam Roggeveen - 30 August 2010 3:24PM

Jim Molan's list of Afghanistan questions begins with, 'Is the war winnable?' But this strategic question ought to be preceded by a grand-strategic one: Is the war worth winning?

Here are some other questions that flow from those five words:

  • What are the most important issues facing Australia in the modern world, and does our Afghanistan commitment reflect these priorities? Should our military and diplomatic focus instead be on:
    • coping with the rising powers of Asia and the relative decline of the US?
    • preparing for Australia's own relative decline against fast-growing Southeast Asian economies?
    • reinforcing and encouraging Indonesia's transition to democracy and modernity?
    • building regional and international institutions that can guard Australia against strategic shocks, whether these be economic, strategic or environmental?
  • At what point should Australia stop trying to build credits with the US through troop commitments, and instead serve the alliance by counseling US restraint?
  • Should Australia try to convince the US — perhaps by withdrawing our forces — that the war is a strategic sideshow and that the US ought to focus its attention on rebuilding its economic strength so that it can remain a strong Pacific power?
  • Will the terrorist threat diminish noticeably if we achieve our Afghanistan war aims, or will terrorists simply migrate to other lawless territories?
  • If Australia's withdrawal did lead to an increased terrorist threat, could we live with that?
  • In terms of counter-terrorism, what is the opportunity cost of the Afghanistan mission? Could the resources be better used to:
    • buttress our very successful regional counter-terrorism approach, which focuses on intelligence and policing?
    • do something about Australia's diplomatic deficit, given that diplomacy has been crucial to opening doors to regional counter-terrorism cooperation?
    • improve the resilience of Australian infrastructure against terrorist strikes?

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Interpreting the Aid Review

This is the archive of a Lowy Institute blog which ran from January to April of 2011. It was published to debate the Gillard Government's independent aid review, which was then in its research and consultation phase. We offer this archive as a service to researchers and the general public.