After the revelation last week about Iran's diplomatic intervention in the Pacific, I was interested to find out a little more Middle Eastern financial links to the South Pacific and environs. East Timorese Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao’s recent visit to Kuwait, for example, has highlighted a very low-key but sporadically active approach by Gulf nations to aid and investment  in our region. Prior to Gusmao’s visit, Ramos Horta made two visits to the country, ostensibly to seek development funds.

Through Kuwait’s overseas aid vehicle, the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development, other regional countries have sought development funds at concessional rates. Not that we are talking big sums. Since the early 1980s, for example, the Solomon Islands has received a little over $11 million. Western Samoa was another even smaller aid recipient over 20 years ago.

The PNG Government has sought investment from the Gulf, with an Abu Dhabi investment body to fund a stake in a Liquid Natural Gas project. However, it’s unlikely that PNG will become a tourist destination for Gulf Arabs any time soon, after Saudi Prince Walid bin Talal’s 15-minute tour of Port Moresby last year.

Tehran and Honiara have little in common, but as Taiwan found out a long time ago, the Solomon Islands’ vote in the UN General Assembly is worth as much as that of the US. Hence the interest Iran has started to show in the welfare of Solomon Islanders. The two countries recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding, which may eventually lead to the establishment of diplomatic relations.

The Solomons Foreign Minister William Haomae recently returned from an official visit to Iran, where he led a delegation to discuss areas of future cooperation with the Islamic Republic. And even more recently, the Ministry of Health has left open the possibility of Iran funding the travel of Solomons students to Cuba for medical training (if only North Korea could get involved we'd have a trifecta of evil in the South Pacific).

So what does this all mean for the region? Iran’s revolutionary form of Islamic government is hardly going to find any adherents in Malaita or Guadalcanal, while the Solomons Government is grateful for aid money that is likely to come with only one string attached – a pro-Iran vote in the UN if and when required. Of more immediate interest is whether Iran’s largesse extends to any more of our Pacific neighbours, if the Solomons-Iran link proves fruitful for both parties.

Guest blogger: Sanjay Ramesh teaches at the University of Technology, Sydney, and is Senior Political Editor at the Sydney Fiji Times and Adjunct Fellow at the University of Fiji.

The 9 October High Court judgment on the case between deposed Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase and interim Prime Minister Commodore Frank Bainimarama focused on the reserve powers of the President. Qarase's legal team argued that the reserve powers of the President could arise only in a Chandrika Prasad-like state of affairs, where armed indigenous nationalists incapacitated the government and held members of the Peoples' Coalition Government hostage for 56 days. In the Prasad case, the High Court held that there was an imperative necessity created by exceptional circumstances not provided for in the constitution.

Qarase's legal team maintained that, during the 2006 tensions between the military and the government, there was no need for the President to act outside the constitution. But the High Court ruled that the President had certain reserve powers under section 109 (1) of the 1997 Constitution and that these extraordinary powers are allowed to the Head of the State. As a result, the actions of the President following the 2006 coup were judged legal and valid, including the decision to dismiss Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase, dissolve parliament, rule directly pending general elections, promulgate legislation and grant immunity.

The validity of the President's actions arises from the acceptance by the High Court that the events that unfolded in November and December of 2006 constituted a 'crisis' that provided legal legitimacy to the subsequent actions and measures taken by the President.

Yesterday, Michael Morgan, Director of International Projects for the Australian Labor Party, gave the Wednesday Lowy Lunch address on political trends in Vanuatu and Melanesia more broadly (you can listen to his presentation here). Afterwards, I sat down with Michael to discuss the key points of his talk:

It seems like something's up in Fiji.

When I published figures on China's pledged aid program to Fiji a few months ago, the interim regime erupted in indignation, particularly in relation to a huge $US150 million soft loan (around $F240 million). The permanent secretary of the Fiji Prime Minister's Office, Parmesh Chand said 'His figures are all wrong'. 'We are seeking a soft loan from China for various sectors but the figure is nowhere near what Hanson's report says'. The Chinese Embassy in Fiji also lashed out. 'There are no new aid programmes to Fiji, neither am I aware of any talks for increased funding', the Director of Political Affairs at the Chinese Embassy in Fiji, Lihua Hu, said.

It was a little surprising then to learn today that Commodore Frank Bainimarama has re-announced the $US150 million ($F240 million) Chinese soft loan, and the Chinese Embassy seems to have confirmed that talks are indeed underway. Hmmm...I guess the Fiji PMO and Director of Political Affairs at the Chinese Embassy were just out of the loop.  

There have been a few interesting things happening in the Pacific world in the last few days. Firstly, China is hosting a follow-up meeting to the first China-Pacific Islands Economic Development and Cooperation Forum in Xiamen, China. Called the Investment, Trade and Tourism Ministerial Conference, it so far seems to have focused on the rapidly growing economic links between China and Pacific countries. According to this site, two-way trade may reach $US2 billion by 2008 and $3 billion by 2010. That's extraordinary growth and would likely put China just behind Australia as the region's top trade partner: in 2006, Australia-Pacific trade was $US3.9 billion. It's clearly good news for the Pacific.

News also emerged — during the China hosted forum — that Taiwan is set to release a White Paper on its approach to aid, with the aim of doing away with the image of 'dollar diplomacy'. This less confrontational approach would seem to fit with other signs of reconciliation between Taipei and Beijing we have seen recently, but would be a major shift in Taiwan's approach to aid giving. It would also presumably have to come with a tacit acceptance by China that it would not use the opportunity to muscle in on Taiwan's turf. Given the stakes for both China and Taiwan, that may be too much to hope for.

The Australian Senate has launched an inquiry into the economic and security challenges facing the Pacific, in which it has called for submissions. One of the areas the committee will be looking at will be how the Australian government can assist Pacific states meet the challenges they face. An idea I think would be worth looking at would be combining AusAID and NZAID, at least as far as their aid programs in the Pacific are concerned. More...

John has this question for Jenny in response to her post on Niue:

'Why Niue?' Given the statistics and relationship with NZ (only 7 per cent of Niueans live in Niue, heavy dependence on aid, they are also citizens of NZ), has there ever been any discussion of incorporation or would that maybe fall foul of a decolonisation commitment? 

I also have a follow-up question on Jenny's post on the government's new labour mobility scheme. Sure it's a relief to finally have this program up and running, but what about the conditions attached? More...

Denise Fisher was Australian Consul-General to Nouméa in 2001-2004:

As a footnote to Graeme Dobell's moving tribute to Greg Urwin, it is a measure of the man that, at the time of his appointment as Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum, there was considerable scepticism among French officials working on the Pacific in their territories and in Paris, with a heavy overlay of suspicion about yet another Anglo-Saxon Aussie plot. And yet leaders of both French Polynesia and New Caledonia have spoken warmly in testimonials about Greg, who quietly worked for bringing them into the Forum process, first as Observers and then as Associates, with Wallis and Futuna added as an Observer. He was a man who knew how to bridge numerous differences.

Two interesting points from a quick reading of the PM's major speech in Singapore:

1. Rudd has embraced the 'soft' definition of national security, which includes food, water, energy and health security. Rumour has it that the draft National Security Strategy, which will presumably include a definition of 'security', is now getting Rudd's personal attention. The paper is due to be released during the next parliamentary sitting.
2. There was no conceptual advance on Rudd's vague proposal for an Asia Pacific Community. Much as Foreign Minister Smith did when speaking at the Lowy Institute in July, Rudd called only for a regional discussion of what the APC might look like.

Guest blogger: Denise Fisher, Australian Consul-General in Nouméa 2001-2004

What is noticeable about the South Pacific in the French White Paper on Defence released by President Nicolas Sarkozy on 17 June is the rarity of any reference to it. The White Paper refers to Australia as a valued partner and briefly to its own collectivities in the Pacific zone (New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Wallis and Futuna), but little more.

This is surprising in view of the White Paper's reference to the growing importance of Asia and the need for Europe to exert greater effort to explain and familiarize its public about Asia. More...

Guest blogger: Denise Fisher, Australian Consul-General in Nouméa 2001-2004

For two days in Paris, while Australians were marking Anzac Day, quiet discussions took place involving historic players from our closest Pacific island neighbour, the French collectivity of New Caledonia. The occasion was a Colloquium held 25 to 26 April, amidst the chandeliers and plush velvet carpets of the French Senate on the Left Bank of Paris. It marked the twentieth anniversary of agreements which underpin the current peace and stability of New Caledonia and which put an end to the virtual civil war of the 1980s:  the Matignon/Oudinot Accords of 1988, and the related Noumea Accord of 1998. Their effect has been to defer until the end of the 2010s any vote on the status of New Caledonia. Before then, it provides for a progressive transfer of powers to New Caledonia, and balanced economic growth inclusive of the Kanaks.

Those present were commemorating the past but with their minds directed firmly to the future. Their discussions provided the seeds of proposals for the future beyond the term of the  Nouméa Accord. They have implications not only for New Caledonia but potentially for its sister French entity, French Polynesia — and for Australia. More...

The latest riposte (see here for the earlier one) to an op-ed I wrote on China’s aid to Fiji has come from the Chinese Embassy (to be completely accurate the response is directed at the South Asian Post who re-reported the op-ed). Talking to Fijilive, Director of Political Affairs at the Chinese Embassy, Lihua Hu said ‘There are no new aid programmes to Fiji neither am I aware of any talks for increased funding’.

I haven't seen the full interview, but the response still seems like careful wording. No new programs? Does that mean the already planned, very large increase in aid to Fiji will still go ahead? And as for not increasing aid: pledges were over $US 160 million in 2007, which gives China a substantial amount of wriggle room.

Mr Hu went on to state ‘we are very transparent with these aid programmes'. Unfortunately, despite this transparency, the Permanent Secretary of the Prime Minister’s Office in Fiji, Parmesh Chand, has been unable to confirm aid levels. More...

A recent report prepared by the US Congressional Research Service for the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on China’s foreign policy and soft power appears to contain some pretty sloppy errors when it comes to the Pacific.

It makes the unusual claim (page 35) that ‘China is likely one of the largest providers of foreign assistance to the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), after the United States and Japan’. This is odd because the Marshall Islands recognises Taiwan (so, as is standard Chinese policy, it gives it no aid, officially) and the source it uses to back up this claim does not, as far as I can see, support this proposition. It would seem the authors meant Taiwan not China.  More...

An opinion piece I recently wrote for the SMH on Chinese aid in Fiji has stirred up a fighting reaction, along with some factual errors.   

The Permanent Secretary of the Prime Minister’s Office in Fiji, Parmesh Chand, is reported in the Fiji Times today as saying 'His figures are all wrong'. But at the same time, he has refused to reveal what the actual figures were. This is peculiar as the same newspaper in November 2007 reported the Finance Minister expressing his gratitude for a $US150 million Chinese soft loan (the largest part of pledged aid to Fiji in 2007). Other pledged aid figures were also drawn from the public record and then independently verified. More...

Tui writes in with this comment on our Fiji debate:

One inadvertent result of the Bainimarama coup which will be its undoing, is the creation of various blog sites set up by professional Fijians like Soli Vakasama, which in Fijian means ‘let’s discuss’ and at the moment currently enjoys the most popular status having received over 370,000 hits.

There are other blog sites such as Kutusebeneivore, Why Fiji is Crying, Hearts and Minds, Hyde n ceek, Fiji Democracy Now, Discombobulated Bubu, Fiji Silenced and Sai Lelea, which are irrefutable signs of professional Fijians standing up to the illegal government and criticising them on issues and facts, which were non existent during the previous coups. More...

Guest blogger: Sanjay Ramesh, who teaches at the University of Technology, Sydney, is Senior Political Editor at the Sydney Fiji Times and Adjunct Fellow at the University of Fiji.

Jon Fraenkel raises some important issues about Fiji. Most important, perhaps, is his message that there could never be any justification for overthrowing an elected government. However, the latest coup in Fiji was different from the previous coups, in that it was based on ‘good governance’ and multi-ethnic collaboration. Nevertheless, a lack of success in the post-coup period on the part of the commander and the President to secure support from all sections of Fiji’s community to participate in the National Council for Building a Better Fiji and for electoral reforms highlight the difficulties behind building trust and consensus among diverse political parties and communal leaders. This leads to Fraenkel’s point whether those, like me, who are taking a 'soft' approach to the military coup in Fiji are aiding in legitimizing an unconstitutional act. More...

Guest blogger: Jon Fraenkel, Research Fellow in the State, Society and Governance in Melanesia Program at the ANU, responds to Satish Chand and Sanjay Ramesh on our Fiji debate.

The chorus of criticism against speedy elections as a way out of the impasse generated by Fiji’s December 2006 coup is revealing. Of course, it is true that the two year Pacific Islands Forum-European Union timetable for fresh elections set in early 2007 reflected a fairly standard response, advocated by the Commonwealth — one suspects almost regardless of the political situation in post-coup circumstances. That response makes greater sense in situations where there are considerable uncertainties about the outcome of elections. However, in Fiji, elections had been held only eight months before the coup in May 2006. As Satish Chand says, there is a high probability that the next election scheduled for March 2009 produces a similarly polarized outcome to those pre-coup polls. Perhaps, as Sanjay Ramesh anticipates, ‘with an even more violent outcome’. This argument has a familiar ring amongst some sections of the community in Fiji, but it is one that could be used to justify acquiescence under military regimes anywhere in the world. More...

Sanjay Ramesh, political editor of the Sydney Fiji Times, responds to Satish Chand's contribution to our Fiji debate:

Satish is right on the mark when he states that holding elections in March 2009 may not resolve Fiji’s deep-seated political problems and will not end the cycle of coups, because as I have mentioned in one of my articles in the World Press, 'holding elections will not magically resolve Fiji's deep-rooted problems and both Australia and New Zealand know that. There is a need to re-analyze Fiji's existing constitution, including the electoral system, and arrive at a political-constitutional framework that would in the future encourage inter-ethnic cooperation at all levels of government'.

The problem is that besides the Fiji Labour Party and the National Alliance Party of Fiji, none of the other political parties are participating in the deliberations of the National Council for Building a Better Fiji (NCBBF). As a result, an election without the necessary political consensus among opposing parties will lead to a repeat of the 2006 general election result with an even more violent outcome.