The space given to aid issues in the Australian media over the last fortnight gives me hope that more Australians might be interested in the international debate on development than I previously thought.

But discussion in the developed world about 'development' tends to focus on how much aid rich countries give to poor countries rather than the development process itself. Australia spends $3.8 million in aid to reduce poverty and promote sustainable development. Taxpayers have a right to know how their aid dollars are being spent and should be engaged in discussion on more effective ways of using aid. 

But although it is easy to blame donors like Australia for slow development progress, particularly in the Pacific, it is worth remembering that aid and development are two different concepts. Aid is only a small part of the development story for countries that have lifted their communities out of poverty.

Former governor of the Central Bank of Solomon Islands, Tony Hughes, said at a recent conference in Vanuatu that the Pacific was 'hooked on aid' and pointed to another path to development for the region by highlighting the importance of microfinance and the availability of credit for small enterprises. His comments endorse the valuable work of Muhammad Yunus and his Grameen Bank, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for innovative work in using microcredit to lift millions out of poverty.

I have been sceptical that New Zealand's diplomatic outreach to Fiji would bear much fruit, but I was proven wrong on the weekend. New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully and Fiji Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola agreed on the nomination of respective acting heads of mission and that they would maintain their dialogue, with an agreement to meet again in May.

New Zealand diverted Fiji from its provocative nomination of interim Government spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Neumi Leweni as Fiji's Counsellor in its New Zealand mission. The more conventional nomination of Mere Tora has been accepted. This shows the Fiji Foreign Minister's commitment to negotiation over maintaining a stand-off as a means of resolving a dispute.

Even more interesting was the announcement that McCully had accepted a proposal to meet Commodore Bainimarama during the Hong Kong Rugby Sevens at the end of March. It is not the first time sport has been invoked as a tool to soothe diplomatic tensions. If there is one thing Fiji and New Zealand have in common, it is their love of rugby. The meeting may just be a courtesy but is at least a crack in the impasse, and it may lead to something more. 

Canberra may be willing to see Wellington take the lead here, but it should be careful not to be left behind. It is just as much in Australia's interests as it is in New Zealand's to be demonstrating a commitment to the future of Fiji.

Photo by Flickr user cx1uk, used under a Creative Commons license.

The Foreign Minister delivered a statement to parliament about developments in Burma this week. Mr Smith outlined the disturbing situation in Burma, the promises of elections and Australia's decision to 'do more for the long-term future of Burma's people'. He explained Australian policy towards Burma would follow the US Administration's new approach – that is, a combination of engagement, sanctions and humanitarian assistance.

Australian sanctions will be maintained until there is significant change from Burma's authorities. Australia will continue to engage with Burma to directly advocate democratic reform and national reconciliation. Australia will increase aid to Burma to $50 million annually over the next three years to meet humanitarian needs and address long-term challenges.

A similar address on Fiji would be timely. In fact, the Minister could almost do a cut-and-paste job for some parts of the speech. This Ministerial press conference last week explained the state of relations with Fiji and the objectives of the trilateral (Australia/New Zealand/Fiji) Foreign Ministers' meeting but did not get the attention that a statement to parliament would receive.

At our first Wednesday Lowy Lunch event for the year this week, I spoke about the year ahead in the Pacific. On Fiji, I said it was important Australia had a relationship that allowed our Government to protect business and consular interests, mitigate damage to the region and maintain links so that Australia could enjoy a deeper relationship with Fiji in a post-Bainimarama environment.

But I cautioned that we should not expect that greater engagement or any normalisation of relations with Fiji now would lead to any change in behaviour from the Fiji Government. 

Disappointingly for Australia and our claims to regional leadership, it is highly unlikely that any policy tweaking or new engagement — even though worth doing for Australia's own interests — will induce Bainimarama to change course. Bainimarama announced just last week that any elected government after 2014 would do its work on the military's terms, thus signaling that any future government had to be approved by him or the military. 

Afterwards, I reflected on what was missing from the debate on what to do about Fiji. Why are Bainimarama and his colleagues winning the public relations campaign? Why are Australian and New Zealand policies being portrayed as harming an innocent Fiji? Why do supporters of the regime get more public attention than its critics? 

In this post last week, I speculated on the motivations behind New Zealand’s first steps in a diplomatic rapprochement with Fiji. New Zealand Foreign Minister McCully is no doubt genuine about New Zealand's efforts to improve relations with Fiji, but is Fiji equally genuine?

Mr McCully probably expected that Fiji would act in good faith in these early stages of a newly positive relationship. At the bare minimum he could have expected that Fiji's interim foreign minister, Ratu Inoke Kubuabola, would forward the name of Fiji's nominee to take up the new Counselor position at the Fiji High Commission in Wellington through appropriate diplomatic channels.

But interim Prime Minister Bainimarama has dispensed with such niceties, announcing that his nominee for the position was Permanent Secretary for Information and Military Spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Neumi Leweni. As a key member of Bainimarama's regime, Leweni is subject to a New Zealand travel ban. He has also been the public face and voice of the regime and become famous for his role as chief censor. 

The nomination and Bainimarama's public announcement of it is a deliberate provocation. 

If New Zealand declines to accept the nomination, as it rightly could, given Leweni is such a high profile associate of Bainimarama, Fiji will renege on the rapprochement. If New Zealand accepts Leweni in order to maintain forward movement in the relationship, Bainimarama will have scored a significant public relations victory and Wellington will have to endure another diplomatic irritant, in the form of the outspoken Leweni, on their doorstep.

New Zealand could respond by publicly nominating an equally difficult personality to the new New Zealand Counselor position – perhaps one of the three diplomats Fiji has already expelled. But that would be escalating the affair.

This will be a significant test of New Zealand diplomacy, one that I'm sure Canberra will be observing very closely.

Sam's post yesterday on Israel's humiliation of the Turkish Ambassador reminded me how important diplomacy is in the Middle East. 

I knew Turkish Ambassador to Israel Oğuz Çelikkol well when I served at the Australian Embassy in Ankara a few years ago. He was then Turkey's Special Representative on Iraq and I frequently accompanied senior Australian Government visitors in discussions with him on the war in Iraq. He was one of the most intelligent and talented diplomats I ever met. He was also a very nice person. 

His knowledge of the Middle East region was exceptional, and like most senior Turkish diplomats, Çelikkol was a strong proponent of the Western alliance system and very well disposed to Israel.

Relations between Turkey and Israel have been souring for the last four years as Turkey's AKP Government has improved its relations with Arab countries, met with Hamas leaders and openly criticised Israeli actions in Gaza. Experienced diplomats, senior journalists and businesspeople in both countries, however, have worked hard to keep the relationship intact. 

That a diplomat as experienced as Çelikkol was appointed Ambassador to Israel shows how important the relationship is to Ankara. Israel badly needs friends in its neighbourhood, even if those friends retain the right to criticise Israel's actions. It also needs Turkey to act as a mediator in the region. Ambassador Çelikkol himself is a vital ally for Israel.

Risking an important strategic relationship with a diplomatic snub over something as petty as a Turkish television program was a stunt Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon could have avoided — with a private (rather than televised) expression of serious concern that would have been relayed faithfully to Ankara, probably with Çelikkol's recommendations for how Turkey could assuage Israel's concerns. 

Ayalon's apology shows calmer heads have prevailed just ahead of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's visit to Turkey. I wonder, though, how many more misadventures this important relationship will endure before its advocates on both sides lose the will to protect it.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully has moved quickly in the new year to achieve a minor breakthrough in Fiji. While most of Oceania takes its annual January break, New Zealand and Fiji have agreed to improve their very poor diplomatic relations. McCully met with his Fijian counterpart and they agreed on expanded diplomatic representation in both capitals.

In this post only a few weeks ago, I wrote that Commodore Bainimarama was impervious to influence beyond his inner circle. Murray McCully's actions made me reconsider my assessment. Could it be that New Zealand's policy is diverging from Australian policy and that New Zealand's engagement with Fiji will succeed where Australia's isolation has not?

The theory that New Zealand has a more sympathetic approach to the Pacific Islands region has long resonated with critics of Australia, particularly during the Howard era, but in terms of policy towards Fiji, it is difficult to demonstrate that New Zealand has been more friendly. 

Something that never changes about Melanesia or the wider Pacific Islands region is its unpredictability. This gives me useful cover for my errors of prediction and changes of mind.

The major prediction I was wrong about was my belief that the economies of the Pacific Islands would all be hurt badly by the global financial and economic crisis. Some countries suffered big losses – particularly those dependent on remittances (Samoa and Tonga) and those dependent on one major export (Solomon Islands). GDP growth dropped across the region in 2009 but most economies still grew rather than contacted. The majority of Pacific Island countries did not experience the economic destruction that many developed countries did. 

I had thought Papua New Guinea would suffer from the decline in commodity prices but PNG survived the GEC relatively unscathed, albeit by drawing on its trust funds to compensate for lower world commodity prices. PNG even ended the year on a high, concluding a US$15 billion liquefied natural gas deal with Exxon Mobil.

The decline in tourism in late 2008 had sounded alarm bells for countries like Vanuatu and Fiji, dependent on tourism from Australia and New Zealand. But tourism rebounded and Australians and New Zealanders in ever larger numbers flocked to the Pacific this year on inexpensive package deals kinder on household budgets than travel to Europe or the US. Economies dependent on the tourism dollar were smiling through the global recession. 

My change of mind, like Graeme Dobell's, is related to Fiji. For most of the year, I have thought that Commodore Bainimarama could be influenced by cleverer strategies and engagement with key partners like Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, or by important institutions in Fiji applying pressure on him. As the year ends, I am convinced that the interim Prime Minister is completely impervious to any influence beyond his inner circle.

I was nodding along with Graeme Dobell's post on Tuesday about Australian policy, Fiji and the Pacific until he mentioned the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG). I don't agree that the MSG is a serious rival to the Pacific Islands Forum.

It has four principal members (the fifth member being the Kanak independence activists of New Caledonia, the FLNKS), a small secretariat and few resources. All four members – Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu — have historically put more of their limited diplomatic efforts into engagement with the Pacific Islands Forum than into the MSG. 

The MSG Free Trade Agreement has not yet contributed to better economic outcomes for members. Divisions between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu over the involvement of West Papuans in the MSG show that the organisation is not united on a policy front. Solomon Islands' focus will continue to lie with the Pacific Islands Forum over the MSG, thanks to the Forum's support for the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands.

Vanuatu's Chief Justice, Vincent Lunabeck, has injected some good sense back into Vanuatu politics. He has overturned the decision of Speaker of Parliament Maxime Carlot Korman to declare Prime Minister Edward Natapei's seat vacant while he was attending the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Trinidad and Tobago. The Speaker's decision was ruled to be 'unconstitutional and of no legal effect', thus allowing Natapei to retain his seat and his position as Prime Minister.

I have personally sat in Vanuatu's Supreme Court to hear Chief Justice Lunabeck deliver decisions on political cases on several occasions. I was always impressed by his capacity to deliver decisions that were not only clear interpretations of the constitution and other relevant legislation but also directed at maintaining the stability of the political system and good governance – a difficult task in Melanesia. 

What is more surprising is that Speaker of Parliament, Maxime Carlot Korman, a very experienced politician who has been Prime Minister himself and been on the wrong side of Lunabeck's judgements on a few occasions, thinks it is worth trying to outfox the shrewd Chief Justice by appealing the decision. 

Following up on my post from last week on Iranian aid to Solomon Islands and the difficulties Tehran had in sending cash to Honiara, I see the two governments have found a clever way around the legal obstacle. After the ANZ Bank refused to transfer funds from Iran to the Solomon Islands Government, the Iranian Embassy in Canberra simply handed the funds to the Solomon Islands High Commission in Canberra, which is now able to pay for the travel of 25 Solomon Islands medical students to Cuba. 

While this is a straightforward solution, the fact that Iran sought an alternative means to deliver its aid and followed through on its promise to Solomon Islands, a distant and unlikely friend, shows it is serious about winning as much support as possible in international forums.

Photo by Flickr user psd, used under a Creative Commons license.

Commonwealth Heads of Government have been meeting  in Trinidad and Tobago to advance an international agreement on climate change. Although Pacific Islands have a central interest in climate change and the voice of Pacific Island leaders needed to be heard at the Commonwealth meeting, not all leaders had an opportunity to attend. Fiji's Frank Bainimarama was barred due to Fiji's suspension from the Commonwealth, and Nauru's President could not attend because Nauru had not paid its membership dues. 

But spare a thought for the Prime Minister of Vanuatu, Edward Natapei. While he was en route to the Caribbean, the Speaker of Parliament in Vanuatu, Maxime Carlot Korman, declared the Prime Minister's seat vacant, forcing Natapei to retreat from the Caribbean.

The Speaker made use of the Members of Parliament (Vacation of Seats) Act, ironically used against Korman himself in 1988, to declare the PM's seat vacant after he missed three consecutive meetings of parliament without seeking the permission of the Speaker. Natapei's staff had neglected to send the formulaic request to the Speaker before he departed for the Commonwealth meeting.

Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth has reported that Iran has been bribing countries to vote against Israel at the United Nations. The report alleges that an Iranian offer of $200,000 of financial assistance to Solomon Islands prior to the visit in October last year of Solomon Islands Foreign Minister William Haomae to Iran was made in exchange for Solomon Islands undertaking to vote against Israel at the UN.

Solomon Islands has traditionally abstained from voting in UN resolutions connected with Israel but has recently started to vote against Israel. Solomon Islands was the only country in the Pacific Islands region that voted in favor of adopting the Goldstone Report on Israel’s operation Case Lead in Gaza. This apparently so alarmed Israel that an Israeli Foreign Ministry representative was dispatched to Honiara to protest.

Apart from the engineering expertise promised last year to Solomon Islands, Iran also agreed to fund the travel costs of Solomon Islands medical students studying in Cuba. But this assistance has struck an obstacle. 

Fiji's interim Government has finally announced the commencement of a National Dialogue Forum – on 1 February 2010. The Forum will be held in preparation for a constitutional forum to be commenced in September 2012. 

Although Colonel Pio Tikoduadua, the Prime Minister's Permanent Secretary, has stressed that discussions at the Dialogue Forum will be 'wide ranging and inclusive', there are a number of pre-conditions for involvement.

Applicants must undertake to make contributions 'not inconsistent with the principles enunciated in the People's Charter for Change, Peace and Progress, they must not have any pending criminal charges or proceedings in Fiji's court system and they must not represent political organisations based on the communal representation.' Just in case any politicians thought there might be a loophole here, the Colonel also made it clear political parties would not be invited to the Dialogue. Civil society and other groups would, however, be welcome. 

It's not quite clear why more than two years of preparation are required for a constitutional forum, particularly when apparently two-thirds of Fiji's population have already expressed support for the People's Charter – Bainimarama's preferred basis for a new constitution — after extensive consultations. And if participants are not permitted to express views inconsistent with the People's Charter, how much further can a Dialogue Forum take the debate about Fiji's future?

The PNG Government handed down its 2010 budget this week. Treasurer Patrick Pruaitch has predicted record high growth of 8.5% per annum, almost double the actual growth of 4.5% in 2009. The PNG economy recorded a major success story this year in continuing to grow at a robust rate and in surviving the global economic crisis relatively intact, despite its high dependence on commodity exports.

The budget is a conservative document but highly dependent on finalising the much anticipated LNG deal with Exxon Mobil next month. Although the first LNG exports from this project will not commence until 2013, the Government has estimated the preparatory and construction phases will contribute about 3 percentage points to GDP growth next year.

Pruaitch warns of an 'exceptionally large current account deficit' in 2010, caused by increases in imports required for the construction phase of the LNG project. Inflation is due to rise to 9.5%, making the already increasing costs of living in PNG more difficult to bear. The Treasurer admits that his Government's accelerated drawdown of trust funds and high spending presents a risk to the economy and the budget.

Fiji's military leader, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, yesterday announced the expulsion from Fiji of Australian High Commissioner James Batley and Acting New Zealand High Commissioner Todd Cleaver. The decision was a signal of Bainimarama's unhappiness with advice on the applicability of travel bans that Australian officials gave to Sri Lankan judges on secondment to Fiji's judiciary.

Curiously, the Australian Government very recently offered an olive branch to Fiji by agreeing to upgrade the status of Fiji's Acting High Commissioner, Kamlesh Arya in Canberra to full High Commissioner status. 

In expelling James Batley, Bainimarama has also recalled Arya to Suva – an unusually prescient move, which left Australia holding few cards it could stomach dealing in retaliation. Foreign Minister Stephen Smith has now announced the formal expulsion of Kamlesh Arya, which was the minimum retaliatory action Canberra could take. Smith has been clear that the Australian response would be proportionate, which it certainly is, and that Australia wanted to continue to have diplomatic relations with Fiji.

For New Zealand, it will be the third time their most senior diplomatic representative has been expelled by Bainimarama. The Australian Government would have been expecting retaliation from Fiji since Fiji was suspended from the Pacific Islands Forum. James Batley would have long had a bag packed ready for immediate departure.

Today marks the last day in office of Australia's Parliamentary Secretary for Pacific Island Affairs, the Hon Duncan Kerr SC MP. Kerr has announced his retirement from his position and intention to retire from politics at the next federal election.

Managing Australia's enhanced relations with the Pacific has become a crowded field, with Prime Minister Rudd, Foreign Minister Smith, Trade Minister Crean and Parliamentary Secretary for International Development Assistance Bob McMullan all creating significant profiles in the region. Mr Kerr has put his mark on the relationship by making regular visits to Pacific Island countries and proving Australia's commitment to the region is based on mutual respect.

Kerr has been an important advocate of better people-to-people relations between Australia and the Pacific Islands. He has also encouraged quality evidence-based contestation of Australian policy. His interest in seeking out alternative views and his participation in intellectual debates is rare among office holders and made Mr Kerr quite popular with Australians committed to the Pacific.

Incredibly, Mr Kerr is the only serving member of the Australian parliament to have lived and worked in the Pacific. 

While China is increasingly perceived to be the major Asian player in the Pacific Islands region, Japan's interests in the region should not be forgotten. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) last week signed a memorandum of understanding with the PNG Government to support the development of the much anticipated multi-billion dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.

According to PNG's State Enterprises Minister, Arthur Somare, Japan will help fund the PNG government's equity in the project and has agreed to buy half of the LNG once the project is completed. With US$3 billion of the PNG government's equity in the LNG project, JBIC willl be PNG's largest financier. Japanese companies Nippon Oil Corp and Chiyoda Corp also have financial interests in the project.

While the final decision on the LNG investment by Exxon Mobil and partners is not due until December, PNG is already counting the benefits. This commitment by the JBIC will do much to increase Japan's profile in PNG. It also won't hurt to remind PNG and the region that Beijing is not the only player from 'the north' happy to do business with Pacific Islands.

Photo by Flickr user Mike at Sea, used under a Creative Commons license.

Samoa holds a national day of mourning today to remember the people it lost in the terrible tragedy of the tsunami last week. The Samoans have demonstrated the best of Pacific resilience, with determination to rebuild after the disaster. Despite the damage to the pristine tourist destinations along the south coast, promoting tourism, which makes up about one quarter of Samoa’s GDP, remains a high priority for the government and people of Samoa.

While the islands of the South Pacific believe themselves to be isolated from the rest of the world, the tsunami has shown that the world can and does embrace the Pacific in times of trouble. Emergency aid has been forthcoming from traditional partners Australia and New Zealand but also from Japan, the Europe Commission, the US and China. The French Government was quick to deploy assistance from its territories of New Caledonia and French Polynesia, as part of the tripartite FRANZ agreement, under which France, Australia and New Zealand cooperate to respond to natural disasters in the Pacific Islands region.

It would be good to see a united international effort to help reconstruction in Samoa. The cost of reconstruction has been estimated at A$135 million. While emergency assistance has to be the priority right now, a quick reconstruction process will help Samoa recover its position as one of the shining examples of successful and stable economies in the region. A united effort from donors beyond the deployment of emergency aid would send an important signal about the world's confidence in Samoa.

Individuals can of course also help – through donations and continuing to visit Samoa. Information about how to help can be obtained from AusAID's website.

Photo by Flickr user jborsboom, used under a Creative Commons license.

Fiji’s interim Prime Minister, Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama, delivered an address to the UN General Assembly on 26 September, in which he defended his 2006 coup and abrogation of Fiji’s constitution in April this year. He asked for the patience of the international community while his government implements promised reforms.

Bainimarama’s description of the under-development of Fiji’s infrastructure, judicial system and systems of accountability would find sympathy with many friends of Fiji, whatever the real reason for that situation. For a nation suspended from the Pacific Islands Forum, Bainimarama did a good job of seeking to advance the interests of small island developing states on climate change — with strong language the Forum Island countries would have applauded.

There are just a few flaws in his arguments about Fiji’s domestic situation though:

Fiji was suspended from the Commonwealth yesterday after it failed to meet the conditions set out by the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) on 31 July. CMAG had sought a commitment from Fiji to reactivate the President’s Dialogue Forum process and hold elections by October 2010.

The Commonwealth's stick came with the proverbial carrot – Secretary-General Sharma said he welcomed Commodore Bainimarama's invitation to meet Commonwealth Special Representative Sir Paul Reeves this month and looked forward to continuing his engagement with Fiji.

Fiji has set something of a Commonwealth record for rogue states. It was expelled from the organisation in 1987 for ten years and suspended from the councils of the Commonwealth after the 2000 coup and again after the 2006 coup. The only other country to have been fully suspended was Nigeria. Pakistan has been suspended twice from the councils of the Commonwealth.

Although experience suggests Commodore Bainimarama will not be troubled by the suspension, there is one new element to this decision that might bother him. For the first time since the December 2006 coup, sporting sanctions have been invoked against Fiji – the suspension means Fiji cannot participate in the Commonwealth Games, due to be held in New Delhi next year. 

Not such a big deal for most countries but for Fiji's famous and hugely popular rugby sevens, the Games are a big opportunity. Fiji has won two silver medals and one bronze medal in rugby sevens in the last three Commonwealth Games. Bainimarama plays rugby himself and is an avid sevens fan. He might feel a bit sorry that he will miss the opportunity to watch Fiji play for glory in New Delhi.

Interestingly, New Zealand's Foreign Minister, Murray McCully, who is a member of CMAG, believes there is nothing more foreign countries can do to encourage Fiji back to democracy now. He is probably right but it's a sad message for the people of Fiji.

Photo by Flickr user bigeoino, used under a Creative Commons license.

It seems Fiji's interim Prime Minister, Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama, is serious about implementing his Strategic Framework for Change.  He has created a new department to guide the implementation of the framework and 'facilitate consensus building through nation-wide reconciliation and dialogue.'

To address concerns that a new department would create costs at a time when Fiji's public sector is shedding staff, the Fiji Government says the costs will be absorbed by phasing out three other units from the Ministry of National Planning.

The disappearance of the National People’s Charter Council is understandable as the Strategic Framework promises to promote the Charter. There may be no need for a Public Relations Media Team while government censors occupy the editorial offices of all media outlets in Fiji.  But phasing out the Good Governance Unit, whatever its role in the current environment in Fiji, sends a rather unfortunate signal from the military leader who launched his coup in December 2006 with the intention of improving good governance. 

The good news, however, is the reference to reconciliation and dialogue. If the new department is supported and resourced to conduct genuine dialogue, this might just be an indication of some forward rather than backward movement in Fiji.

Photo by Flickr user Hertzahaeon, used under a Creative Commons license.

Prime Minister Rudd has hosted his first Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting in Cairns and taken over as chair of the regional group for the next year. By all accounts, he was a popular chair.

The Australian Government put significant effort into organising this first major diplomatic summit to be held in Australia since Labor came to power. Unsurprisingly, Australian objectives were clearly reflected in the Forum communiqué. Despite the concerns expressed by small island states about rushing into the commencement of PACER Plus trade negotiations, leaders agreed to commence the negotiations ‘forthwith’ – a major diplomatic success for Australia, which has been pushing the early launch of regional trade negotiations. 

The strong condemnation of Fiji’s military regime in the communiqué ignored the rhetoric of the Melanesian Spearhead Group. This may be part of Forum protocol not to recognise a sub-regional group which has no official status in the Forum’s regional architecture or may reflect a decision from MSG leaders to resile from their own stated support for Commodore Bainimarama’s strategic framework for change and belief that closer engagement with Fiji was necessary.

Yesterday's arrests in Fiji of the leadership of the Methodist Church and a female paramount chief are a dramatic development in Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama’s quest to increase his control over the country. Whether they will be the trigger for the ultimate demise of his leadership, or civil unrest, or whether they are a sign of the permanent entrenchment of a military dictatorship remains to be seen. 

The arrests are a clear threat to two key pillars of Fiji society – the Methodist Church and the Chiefly System – and represent the most significant provocation from Bainimarama to civil society in Fiji since the 2006 coup. It’s a risky and desperate move from a leader who claims to understand the 'Pacific Way'.

The General Secretary of the Methodist Church, Rev. Tuikilakila Waqairatu, past presidents of the Church, Rev. Tomasi Kanailagi and Rev. Manasa Lasaro, Church accountant, Mr. Viliame Gonelevu and the female Chief of the Rewa Province, Ro Teimumu Kepa, were arrested between 11pm and midnight on 21 July and taken to a military facility for interrogation. The arrests were made following police questioning of senior Methodist church figures earlier in the day.

The decision by the Melanesian Spearhead Group’s (MSG) leaders on 10 July to lend their support to Fiji’s interim Government, and the backpedalling by leaders since that decision, reveals some interesting insights into how diplomacy works — or does not work — in the Pacific.

The meeting was held at a useful juncture for Bainimarama – a week after he delivered his Strategic Framework for Change speech and three weeks before the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders’ Summit in Cairns, from which he has been excluded. He seized the opportunity to secure endorsement for his agenda from a group of the region’s most influential countries. 

The support offered to Bainimarama by the leaders of Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu was likely driven by a sense of obligation to Melanesian brotherhood, a desire to assert a Melanesian approach that differed from that of Australia, New Zealand and the Polynesian members of the Forum, and some pandering to domestic constituencies concerned about Fiji’s suspension from the Forum.

If the MSG is to prove it is an effective sub-regional grouping, its leaders should present a clear and united front to the region and demonstrate that Melanesian-style diplomacy offers a better way of dealing with Fiji. The situation in Fiji is such that the region is crying out for creative solutions. Supporting Bainimarama's Strategic Framework for Change, Fiji’s continuing engagement in the PIF and the right to participate in regional trade agreements all telegraphed a strong message to the region about Melanesian solidarity. 

The leaders of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji), who met in Port Vila last Friday,have surprised some of their regional counterparts by supporting Fiji interim Prime Minister Bainimarama’s strategic framework for change in Fiji. 

Bainimarama has convinced PNG Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare, Vanuatu Prime Minister Edward Natapei and Solomon Islands Prime Minister Derek Sikua that his plan for Fiji, announced in a speech on 1 July, was credible and good for Fiji. The three leaders have promised to argue the case for Fiji’s engagement in the Pacific Islands Forum and its right to participate in regional trade and economic cooperation agreements at the upcoming Leader’s Summit in Cairns. 

It is a diplomatic triumph for Bainimarama. read more

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Sinawatra is reportedly in Vanuatu today, seeking to meet leaders of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji). In the last week, he has also been to Tonga and Fiji, where he is reported to have met with Fiji’s interim Prime Minister Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama.

Media reports quoting informed sources in Fiji say Thaksin is considering investing $300m in Fiji in return for protection from extradition. This would be a very attractive sum for the Fiji interim Government, desperately in search of donors and investors. To put it into perspective, China, purported to be Fiji’s saviour, has pledged US$161.3 in aid to Fiji, of which a little over half appears to be committed to projects. 

Thaksin’s offer would be welcome relief for Bainimarama in his quest to prove that Fiji is a sound destination for foreign investment.

The democratically-elected government of Thaksin Sinatwra was deposed in a military coup in September 2006, only three months before Commodore Bainimarama staged his own military coup to overthrow Fiji’s democratically elected government. Ironic that the victim of one military coup is considering providing succour for the perpetrator of another.

Photo by Flickr user craig.martell, used under a Creative Commons license.

Fiji’s interim Prime Minister, Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama, gave an address to the nation on 1 July setting out a strategic framework for change for the next five years. Although Fiji’s media is heavily censored by the interim Government, the Fiji Broadcasting Corporation at least has a live streaming facility, so I was able to listen to the speech live right here in my office in Sydney.  

The address was expected to establish a detailed roadmap for reform and a return to democracy in Fiji. But it was essentially a blueprint for economic reforms to entice international financial institutions and donors to re-engage with Fiji, with only vague promises of political reform.

For those sceptical of Bainimarama’s commitment to democracy, the speech offered little to persuade them otherwise. Bainimarama renewed his commitment to hold elections in September 2014 and outlined a new promise – the preparation of a new constitution by September 2013. While this was inevitably the consequence of the abrogation of the 1997 constitution on 10 April this year, it is not clear why he decided public consultations on the drafting of a new constitution cannot commence until September 2012. 

Commodore Bainimarama said the new constitution would derive its impetus from the recommendations of the People’s Charter for Change, Peace and Progress. That document has been in the public domain for at least six months and has already been subjected to a consultative process. It is therefore strange that Fiji’s citizens have to wait another three years for an opportunity to participate in the process of determining their own future. If there are to be public consultations, why not start now? It would have cost the interim Government little and demonstrated to the region and the international community that Fiji was serious about political reform.

New Zealand’s foreign minister, Murray McCully has announced an overhaul of New Zealand’s aid program. The key changes are a new mandate for NZAID — moving from poverty alleviation to a clear focus on sustainable economic growth in the Pacific Islands region — and the removal of NZAID’s semi-autonomous status within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, designed to improve the management and delivery of aid and to align aid with New Zealand’s wider foreign policy interests.

Following Australian Prime Minister Rudd’s criticism of Australian aid last week, McCully has been critical of New Zealand’s capacity to deliver real improvements to the lives of the Pacific Island recipients of its aid.

In this op-ed for the New Zealand Herald and this speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, McCully makes his case for spending more of the aid budget on the Pacific region and tracking the performance of aid against objective measures like trade and tourism statistics, income growth and improvements in health and education services. 

He declares an intention to get more aid to recipients and minimise spending on overheads of NGOs and bureaucracies. McCully also promises more support for the fledgling private sectors in the Pacific, 'through micro-financing schemes and initiatives that create opportunities for enterprise.' As this is something I argued in my policy brief on reforming aid last year and something PNG’s Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare has called for in the delivery of aid in his country, I support New Zealand’s ambitions.

Unlike Rudd, McCully has distanced himself from what he calls 'lofty rhetoric regarding the Millennium Development Goals' but his plans to make New Zealand’s aid program more effective and efficient are similar to the Australian government’s stated aims. 

Australia’s aid budget for the 2009-10 financial year will be announced next week. Australia-New Zealand aid coordination has been increasing in recent years; it would be constructive if both countries could accelerate and enhance that cooperation even further now for the good of our Pacific Island neighbours.

Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare was in Australia last week on a state visit. The wide-ranging discussion in his 28 April joint press conference with Prime Minister Rudd was a timely reminder that the Australia-PNG relationship is broader than the aid framework that dominates Australian thinking about our nearest neighbour.

Prime Minister Rudd announced that Australian medallions would be awarded to recognise the service and sacrifice of the Fuzzy Wuzzy Angels during World War II and spoke of the development of a rugby league competition in PNG that could be integrated with the Australian league in the future.

Nevertheless, the aid program is an important part of the bilateral relationship and the two prime ministers appear to have had a frank discussion about the future directions of Australia’s aid to Papua New Guinea. Importantly, Prime Minister Somare gave a speech in Canberra in which he foreshadowed a major policy shift in PNG’s approach to development cooperation.

Somare spoke of the depth and warmth of the bilateral relationship and said PNG must forge a ‘new relationship of equitable partnership with Australia…reflected in a new level of equality…at all levels encompassing political, social, trade and commerce.’ He declared his government’s intention to More...